On 14 March China approved a law that codifies its long-standing threat to use military force if Taiwan formally declares independence. The measure could touch off a destabilising action-reaction cycle that could spin out of control and draw China into unnecessary armed conflict with the United States over Taiwan
President George W. Bush’s nomination of Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State is certain to put a more assertive stamp on US foreign policy during the next four years. By replacing Colin Powell, who frequently strayed from White House orthodoxy, Bush has signalled that he is determined to fix a dysfunctional relationship that hampered the execution of his foreign policy during his first term.
This paper analyses the issues that decisively shaped the election agenda during the United States presidential campaign and election of 2 November 2004. It can be expected that, during his second term, President George W. Bush will find different degrees of popular support to pursue new policy initiatives on various issues
The decisive re-election of President George W. Bush –with larger Republican majorities in both houses of Congress– confirms that the United States is a centre-right country. Nevertheless, the country remains divided. Indeed, the campaign highlighted cultural divisions within American society that in many ways reflect the source of the current tensions in trans-Atlantic relations
The first debate of this year’s presidential campaign was about foreign policy–which candidate could best protect America in a dangerous world–. Overall, George W Bush and his Democratic challenger, John F Kerry, did not raise many new arguments.
This is the biggest foreign-policy election in the United States since 1968. Because preventing nuclear terrorism will be the defining national security issue of the next administration, Iraq, Iran and North Korea will dominate US national security concerns. This means that US foreign policy will not fundamentally shift from the past four years, even if John Kerry wins the White House
Whether it’s Bush or Kerry in the White House next year, defusing the nuclear proliferation crisis with Iran –which many analysts believe will acquire nuclear weapons within the next four years– will constitute one of the most complex and pressing challenges facing the next administration
US policy on the nuclear crisis with North Korea may become both more active and stricter in the wake of President Bush’s re-election and the changes unveiled in his administration. If Washington decides to up the pressure on Pyongyang, either to force North Korea to capitulate, or to bring about regime change in the country, tension could mount rather than subside, causing an unnecessary escalade in the conflict.
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